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Final Polls for Specter-Sestak; Primary Today

May 18, 2010    Content provided by DDC Advocacy

The final two public polls for today's Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primary were released last evening, and both show a virtual dead heat between Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA-7). Quinnipiac University (5/12-16; 951 likely Democratic primary voters) gives Sestak a slight 42-41% lead over the party-switching incumbent. According to the Q-Poll, 16% of the sample still claimed to be undecided and a full 25% said they could still change their mind before actually casting their ballots. Though the race is too close to call, all of the late trends are in Sestak's favor. Muhlenberg University, polling for the Morning Call newspaper, (5/12-15; 430 likely Democratic voters) shows the Specter-Sestak race in a tie, with both candidates receiving 44%. Their sample, however, is small for a state the size of Pennsylvania, but both the Q-Poll and the Muhlenberg data are consistent with the results of other earlier public polls. The winner will face consensus Republican candidate Pat Toomey, who will cruise to victory in the GOP primary.

The PA-12 special election between Democrat Mark Critz and Republican Tim Burns will also be settled this evening. Polling here appears to be just as close as the Senate campaign, so this particular election day will be a nail-biter. In Arkansas, all eyes are on embattled Sen. Blanche Lincoln to see if she can win her nomination outright, or is forced into a run-off against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. Clearly, the May 18th primary will prove to be one of the most significant of the entire election year.