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November 2, 2010 Content provided by DDC Advocacy
On Election morning, the Senate now appears to be the body with the most question marks. With the House trending toward a Republican majority, the Senate GOP races are now apparently closing in upon majority status, too. Throughout electoral history there has never been an election where the House flipped to a different party without the Senate. Thus, if the Republicans do gain control of the House and not the Senate, 2010 will make history because this will be the first time such a configuration has occurred.
The latest trends suggest that Nevada (Majority Leader Harry Reid), Illinois (Burris open), Pennsylvania (Specter open), and Colorado (appointed Sen. Michael Bennet), are all tilting the GOP's way. Added to the Democratic states of Arkansas, Indiana, North Dakota, and Wisconsin that appear secure in the Republican column would mean the party is realistically approaching 49 seats. Thus, one of the following states would have to vote Republican to force a 50-50 tie: California, Connecticut, Washington, or West Virginia. Two wins in these four states would mean a companion Senate Republican majority.
In the final day, California looks to be tightening but incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer still has a slight lead; Connecticut: Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal looks to have a lead beyond the margin of error; Washington: a race that is approaching dead heat status; and West Virginia, where Gov. Joe Manchin has a slight lead, but is by no means secure. The Republicans need to throw a perfect political game tonight, and though attaining the majority is still unlikely, one can at least see the goal from the current Republican perch.