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The Democrats' Strategy

September 7, 2010    Content provided by DDC Advocacy

Currently, news organizations are reporting that the Democrats' House campaign strategy is leading them to abandon their weak seats while circling the wagons around those that still appear salvageable. Thus, their substantial political and monetary resources will be directed toward a concentrated number of campaigns, but a large enough subset that--if the candidates are successful--will hold their majority by the slimmest of margins. Expect the Democrats to localize as many elections as possible, keeping away from what is now commonly being viewed as their unpopular national agenda. The individual incumbents will stress their own personal achievements while launching attack offensives against their Republican opponents. Conversely, the GOP will attempt to nationalize the campaign agenda and expand the number of seats where they contest a Democratic incumbent who, heretofore, appeared to be a heavy favorite for re-election. This is exactly the opposite of what occurred in both 2006 and 2008.

Some of the races believed to be in the concession category are the seats of Ohio Rep. Steve Driehaus, who has trailed former Rep. Steve Chabot in polling for many weeks; Rep. Earl Pomeroy, who is in a similar situation in North Dakota; and potentially Texas Rep. Chet Edwards who represents the most Republican district of any Democratic incumbent in the United States. New Republican opportunities are appearing in the state of Washington, where Democratic incumbent Rick Larsen is trailing his GOP challenger in at least in one poll, and North Carolina Rep. Heath Shuler who, according to three recent surveys, has now fallen into a dead heat against a little-known Republican as he strives for a third term.

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