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More Florida Confusion

August 17, 2010    Content provided by DDC Advocacy

The Florida primary races are scheduled for August 24th and a pair of polls is producing crazy numbers in both the Republican gubernatorial and Democratic senatorial primaries, but one of the sources is more credible than the other. In two just-released surveys, we see completely opposite results. Last week, we reported that Mason-Dixon Polling & Research released the findings of their August 7-9 study that showed Attorney General Bill McCollum regaining the lead over businessman Rick Scott (34-30%) after unleashing a barrage of negative ads against the hospital chain executive. Now, Ipsos Public Affairs, for the Miami Herald and the St. Petersburg Times, counters with new data (8/6-10; 275 Republican, or Republican lean, adults) that again gives Scott the advantage. Their numbers show McCollum trailing 32-42%. The Ipsos poll did not screen for likely, or apparently even registered, voters, and their sample size (275) is way too low to be considered within the same reliability plane as Mason-Dixon.

M-D also released new data (8/9-11; 625 registered FL voters; 400 over-sample of likely Democratic primary voters) that shows the complete opposite result of Ipsos in the Senate primary. Ipsos has only 237 adult Democrats/Lean Democrats (even smaller than the tiny Republican sample) in their polling universe, and the results give businessman Jeff Greene a 35-31% lead over Miami Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL-17). The more structurally sound Mason-Dixon poll counters with a conclusion that Meek is developing a rather commanding lead. Their data shows him to be ahead of Greene 40-26%. Be careful of putting much stock in the Ipsos numbers because the polling methodology for this particular survey appears faulty.

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