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Poll: Another Incumbent May Fall

July 20, 2010    Content provided by DDC Advocacy

The Michigan primary is fast approaching on August 3rd, and two new polls suggest that yet another incumbent could soon lose another re-nomination campaign. Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D-MI-13), mother of disgraced former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, could be headed for a Democratic primary defeat if two media polls are correct. The latest survey, from the Glengariff Group for the Detroit News and television station WDIV, shows state Sen. Hansen Clarke leading the seven-term Congresswoman 38-30% in a survey of 400 Democratic MI-13 voters taken July 14-15. Four other candidates are also on the ballot, but none broke 4%. Earlier (7/6-7), the EPIC/MRA poll found Clarke to be leading by an even more substantial 44-31% margin. The Representative won re-nomination in 2008 with less than 40% of the vote, as two strong opponents split the anti-Kilpatrick vote, but Clarke seems to be gaining the lion's share of those not favoring the incumbent in this election.

The more recent poll showed Kilpatrick's favorability ratio to be a poor 46:40%, with universal name identification. Hansen was recognized by 79% of the respondents, and he scored a 57:4% favorable to unfavorable rating. The EPIC poll asked voters choosing another candidate why they were not supporting Kilpatrick, and two answers dominated the responses. The overwhelming reason (44%) was the family scandals, while the secondary explanation (15%) expressed the overall sense that change in Washington is needed.

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