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Ohio Numbers Change Again

July 6, 2010    Content provided by DDC Advocacy

Last week, two national pollsters showed the Ohio Senate race, which has been rated as a toss-up since Sen. George Voinovich announced he would not seek a third term early last year, to again be within an eyelash. Public Policy Polling and Quinnipiac University both released surveys giving Democratic Lt. Governor Lee Fisher identical 42-40% leads over former Bush Budget Director Rob Portman (R). Over the July 4th holiday weekend, Rasmussen Reports released their own Ohio Senate poll (6/29; 500 likely OH voters) with data producing a different conclusion. According to the RR poll, Portman has a 43-39% advantage. The discrepancy can be explained in at least two ways. First, the comparison in results largely reflect the emphasis Rasmussen places upon projecting a turnout model for the specified election instead of drawing a sample solely based upon demographics and political persuasion. This explains why sometimes Rasmussen has different readings than other more traditional pollsters. Secondly, this race could be so statistically close that polls are simply fluctuating within the margin of error, even to the point of inverting the leaders. Count on this race remaining within a razor-thin margin all the way to Election Day.

 

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